Monday, September 19, 2011

Daily FX Updates and Recommendations


YEN The Yen fell to a three month low against the Dollar and Euro on Tuesday as continued concerns over the viability of Japan’s economy pushed investors out of the Japanese currency and into a variety of other options.  The Yen has rapidly lost its safe-haven status among investors who, even with the US’s problems, are flocking to the Dollar still.
At 5PM GMT the Yen was down 2% to the Euro at 122.64 and 1 ¾% to the USD at 96.24.  The British Poind also advanced on the Yen up 1.6% to 139.19 – the AUD rose 2 ½% to 62.1 and the Franc was up 2.2% to 82.7.
USD
US Housing prices fell an extraordinary 18.5% in December from the previous year as the scope of the crises that analysts theorize started the crisis in the US broadened (grew larger).  The US markets were also waiting on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as he delivers testimony to the US Congress.  The USD was trading mixed against a basket of currencies in advance of this news.  As well, President Obama is scheduled to deliver a speech to both houses of Congress Tuesday evening regarding his proposals for cutting the enormous US deficit.  Traders are skeptical of the plan which contradicts the recent stimulus package as it calls for raising taxes significantly.
At 5:10 GMT the Dollar was down 1/3rd to the Euro at 1.2738, the CAD to 1.2491, the CHF to 1.1647, the AUD to .6436 and the NZD to .5093.  The dollar did make gains against the GBP, up about ½% to 1.4428.
EUR
Germany came out with its much anticipated IFO business climate indicator which had fallen more than expected to 82.6 – estimates had the level remaining at 83.0.  The market did not respond as traders took Tuesday to play the Dollar and Yen in advance of the news coming out of Washington.
The Euro was up 1% versus the Pound to .8828, up slightly to the CHF to 1.4847 and the AUD at 1.9789 and trading flat to the NZD at 2.5.
Charts: GBPUSD  making a bid for higher levels – can GBPUSD continue to rally?
The GBP jumped to new recent highs versus the EUR and the USD to start this week as the Euro’s Eastern Europe exposure and internal strife have come into focus of late and on relief that the US did not appear to be on the road to nationalizing Citibank as it was rumored over the weekend, but rather was only looking to take a larger share of ownership. Any time the market expresses relief in the financial sector tends to help out GBP due to the UK’s extreme exposure to the sector. Taking a look at GBPUSD, if the rally is turned back here at the key 55-day moving average around 1.4600, then we could be in for more ranging action back to 1.4000, while a daily close above 1.4600 and the falling trendline could set up a sequence toward 1.50-1.55. The outcome will likely hinge on the reaction to Bernanke’s testimony on Tuesday.

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